A war over Taiwan would do more damage to the global economy than the Second World War, a warning aimed at both Beijing and anyone who assumes the island's defenses are a side issue.

• AIT head Raymond Greene told a Taipei security forum that any Taiwan Strait conflict would hit the world economy harder than WWII.
• Washington is pushing three tracks at once: high-level diplomacy, stronger forces along the first island chain, and more support for Taiwan's own defenses.
• An upcoming US-China summit is being framed as a chance to steady the relationship and cut the risk of miscalculation.
• Taiwan has changed how it thinks about defense since Russia invaded Ukraine, with recent Han Kuang drills putting Patriot launchers and armored units into city streets.
• Taiwan's edge is geography and trust: a landing across a rough, exposed strait onto a mountainous, built-up island is brutally hard, and democracies can push battlefield decisions down to front-line troops the way Ukraine has.

Outlook: Expect more US-Taiwan defense cooperation and lessons pulled from Ukraine and the Middle East, with the stated goal of preventing a fight rather than winning one.