US borrowing costs are climbing fast while Washington adds new spending promises, and that is bad news for stocks, housing, and anyone needing a loan.

• Trump has promised a $5,000 payment to every adult if Republicans win the midterms — a roughly $1.2 trillion bill that would have to be borrowed.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been buying back long-term government debt to hold yields down, but the amounts are tiny next to a $40 trillion debt pile.
• The 10-year yield has pushed near 5%, which lifts mortgage rates and makes the big AI data center buildout far more expensive to finance.
• Oil above $100 and gas over $6 a gallon are pushing inflation back up, leaving the Fed cornered and markets now betting on rate hikes instead of cuts.
• A stronger yen and rising Japanese bond yields could pull over a trillion dollars of Japanese money out of US stocks and bonds and back home.

Outlook: If the Iran conflict keeps oil high and borrowing keeps growing, yields likely push higher still, with rate hikes and more market stress ahead.