Inflation came in hotter than expected under the surface, and traders now see a rate hike as nearly certain on Wednesday — bad news for stocks, crypto, and anyone with debt.

• Headline inflation matched forecasts, but core inflation ran hotter, flipping the odds of a hike from a coin flip to almost sure thing.
• Gas, diesel, and energy costs jumped the most, and the recent price spike won't even show up until next month's report.
• The real inflation rate may be worse than reported — the money supply is growing at about twice the official rate.
• A hike would blow a hole in the federal budget, since the government keeps rolling its $40 trillion debt into short-term bills that reprice higher.
• Trump put Kevin Warsh at the Fed specifically to cut rates, so a hike sets up a direct clash with the White House.

Outlook: Wednesday's decision lands with markets braced for a hike, and energy costs point to more inflation pressure into October.