A possible hidden bullish divergence is forming on Bitcoin's daily chart, but the track record behind it is close to a coin flip — neutral, and only mildly encouraging for buyers.

• When this setup works, Bitcoin has gained about 7% in five days and roughly 25% over the next three weeks.
• It has only worked in 14 out of 30 past cases, so the odds are no better than a coin toss.
• When it fails, it fails fast — about a 2% loss within five days.
• Bitcoin has already given up roughly that much, so the failure case may be playing out right now.

Outlook: The next few days decide it — a bounce from here keeps the bullish case alive, while more weakness likely confirms this is one of the failures.