Taiwan's ruling DPP is heading into the 2026 local elections with its own president looking like a liability, a bad sign for the party and a boost for the opposition KMT.

• A new Taichung poll puts the KMT's Chiang Chi-chen more than 12 points ahead of the DPP's Ho Hsin-chun.
• President Lai Ching-te's campaign visits are seen as locking the DPP into its own base rather than winning over swing voters.
• Even among green-camp supporters, barely a third think their own candidate will win — essentially tied with the KMT rival.
• Kaohsiung, long DPP home turf, is now a dead heat, and Taipei's mayor is under attack mainly to blunt his rise, not to win the city.
• A separate fight is raging over the premier's refusal to countersign opposition-passed bills, with critics saying the president is really behind it.

Outlook: With two months to go, expect the DPP to keep playing defense while the KMT presses its lead in Taichung and pushes for an upset in Kaohsiung.