Victor Davis Hanson argues the Iran war stopped too early and that Trump's whole agenda now hangs on a midterm election he is likely to lose.

• The US and Israel halted strikes after 38 days and began negotiating with Iran, instead of pressing until the regime was crippled.
• Hanson's preferred plan: bomb bridges, airports and the power grid early, choke Iran with strict sanctions and a blockade, then let Iranians topple their own government.
• Iran's leaders are not seen as rational players, so any deal from a regime under limited pressure is expected to be worthless.
• Trump's low approval and history (the president's party loses most midterms) make holding Congress unlikely.
• If Republicans lose the House and Senate, Trump's push to remake economic, cultural and military policy is effectively over.

Outlook: Expect a drawn-out "fight, talk, fight" cycle with Iran, high gas prices into the midterms, and a weakened Trump presidency if Congress flips.