JP Morgan's oil team has stopped trying to predict how the Iran war ends, and the economy keeps drifting past danger points without breaking — unsettling for investors, and bad news for Trump and Republicans heading into the midterms.

• Oil above $100, gas near $5 in some states, and 10-year bond yields near 5% were all supposed to be red lines for stocks, yet markets are still holding up and nobody can explain why.
• A new Fox News poll shows groceries, gas, housing, and health care are what people actually worry about, while the White House keeps pushing war coverage and asking voters for patience on high prices.
• Trump's team approved $24 billion in F-35 sales to Saudi Arabia and is floating a fuel export ban, which could briefly lower prices at home but would strain refining capacity and push prices back up through Europe and Asia.
• Iran is deepening ties with China and using UN vetoes from China and Russia to argue the era of US-led pressure is over.
• Republicans are reopening talk of Social Security reform, with Michigan candidate Mike Rogers saying "every option" is on the table and retirement needs a rethink — a likely step toward pushing retirement money into the markets.

Outlook: The economy has not cracked yet, but with oil, gas, and interest rates all past levels once considered unsurvivable, the risk of a sudden break remains high and Wall Street has stopped pretending it can see the endgame.