Trump says he faces a big decision on whether to "annihilate" Iran as two more tankers are hit in the Strait of Hormuz, but his history of loud threats followed by quick deals points to a possible settlement before the midterms — bad for oil markets today, potentially good for stocks and travel if a deal lands.

• Two more tankers were reportedly struck in the Strait of Hormuz in the last day, and the US is probing AI-powered cyberattacks on energy ships.
• Trump has repeatedly made extreme threats against Iran right before backing off and cutting a deal, so his latest "annihilate" talk may signal a deal is close.
• Oil sits around $104, barely off its highs, after Houthi strikes on Saudi pipelines pushed it up from $90; Saudi facilities should be back online within six weeks.
• Trump meets six Gulf leaders in New York on Tuesday, which could let him hand off responsibility for Iran to the region and declare victory before the election.
• Congress passed Lindsey Graham's bill allowing tariffs up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil, giving Trump leverage over China and India ahead of his meeting with Xi later this month — but also risking higher oil prices and inflation.

Outlook: A temporary deal with Iran before the midterms looks more likely than it appears, though weapons inspections and Iran's nuclear program would remain unresolved.