Republicans are heading into the midterms expecting big losses, and that is bad news for the party, especially in the House, where Democrats are favored to take control.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson called a late-night leadership meeting to discuss suspending the federal gas tax until after the election, hoping to ease high gas prices for voters.
• The meeting fell apart when Transportation Committee chair Sam Graves pointed out that Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris had attacked Biden for proposing the same gas-tax pause, and Harris stormed out.
• Democrats lead the generic congressional poll by 8 points, a huge margin for that kind of survey.
• Other warning signs: JD Vance is campaigning in deep-red Kansas, a new super PAC is fighting independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and Georgia Republicans may give up on unseating Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff.
• Republican voters look unmotivated by wars in the Middle East and high gas prices, so low turnout could hurt the party more than any Democratic enthusiasm helps.

Outlook: Democrats are likely to win the House this fall, but that says more about Republican weakness than a strong Democratic message, and it would not change U.S. support for Israel or the Iran conflict.