Most people who buy options are betting on the wrong thing, which is bad news for beginners and part of why so many lose money.

• Options buyers usually focus on whether a stock will go up or down.
• The real question is whether the option's price is too high or too low for the size of the moves expected.
• Options cost more when markets are swinging a lot and less when markets are calm.
• Professionals bet on those swings being mispriced, while amateurs mostly guess direction.

Outlook: A follow-up on why most beginners lose money buying call options is coming next.