Retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery told a Taiwan defense-resilience forum that China's real plan is cyber and economic pressure rather than a cross-strait invasion — a mixed picture for Taiwan, with the danger shifting from tanks to hacks.

• Montgomery does not expect China to invade across the Taiwan Strait; Beijing wants to squeeze Taiwan through cyberattacks and economic pressure.
• The pressure window is 2028, not 2027: if Xi's charm offensive fails and Taiwan again elects a president who rejects coercion, Xi will push harder.
• Taiwan should expect China to win some cyber battles in a crisis, so the key is how fast the government and private companies can bring systems back online.
• Ukraine's example shows resilience depends on satellite links like Starlink and on people trusting that the government is doing its best — Ukrainians blamed Russia, not their own utilities, for blackouts.
• Chinese-made parts in weapons are a security risk; the US Navy will never deliberately test Harpoon missiles in the Taiwan Strait over fears Chinese software could limit where they work.

Outlook: Taiwan is building non-Chinese supply chains and adding whole-of-society defense to its annual drills, and Montgomery expects it to become a key microelectronics supplier to the US, Europe, Japan and Ukraine within five years.