Americans feel far worse about their own finances than official commentary suggests, which is bad news for Republicans heading into the election.

• The University of Michigan consumer survey shows Americans rating their current financial situation as badly as at the low point of every recession since the 1970s.
• That clashes with the upbeat message from figures like Kevin Warsh, who describe the economy as resilient.
• The gap between how the economy is described and how people actually feel it is a political warning sign for the party in power.
• The survey has tracked consumer sentiment monthly since the late 1970s, so this reading carries real historical weight.

Outlook: If voters keep feeling squeezed while officials call the economy strong, Republicans risk paying for it at the ballot box.