AI and companies like SpaceX are real and here to stay, but that does not mean the people buying in now will make money — a warning for anyone piling into hot tech stocks.

• A technology winning and its investors winning are two very different things.
• In the 1800s railroads changed America forever, yet almost every investor who funded the boom got wiped out when those companies went bankrupt.
• A second wave of investors then bought the same railroads for pennies on the dollar and made fortunes.
• AI will most likely follow the same pattern: today's investors absorb the losses, and later buyers pick up the technology much cheaper.
• This is not a reason to sell everything, but you should know what your index funds actually own, since they may be heavily loaded with these early-stage AI bets.

Outlook: Expect the AI boom to keep evolving, with the real gains going to investors who buy in after the first wave of losses rather than those paying today's prices.