Taiwanese voters are losing confidence in U.S. military backing ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, a worrying sign for Taipei as cross-strait tension sits at its highest level in a decade.

• Nearly half of Taiwanese have no confidence the U.S. will keep selling arms and giving military aid, after Washington shelved arms sales following the May Trump-Xi meeting.
• A slim majority still believes U.S. troops would defend Taiwan in a war, but the split runs sharply along party lines.
• Two-thirds want Taiwan to stay neutral between the U.S. and China, including in the AI and tech fight, rather than lean toward either side.
• A majority is unhappy with President Lai Ching-te's handling of China, though the number has eased from last year's peak.
• Politics, military, and diplomacy all rate as hostile-tension zones, and the war-risk gauge has climbed over ten years, while support for independence has risen and most still want the status quo.

Outlook: Xi is expected to press Trump on Taiwan at the summit, so watch whether U.S. arms sales stay frozen — while most Taiwanese still want more tourism, cultural, and city-level exchanges with China despite the strain.