The US and Israel struck Iran in the middle of active negotiations, an attack described as the most brazen unprovoked aggression in modern history — bad news for diplomacy and for anyone hoping for stability in the region.

• The strike came with no pretext at all, not even a fabricated one, while talks with Iran were still underway.
• Past aggressors, from Hitler's invasion of Poland to the US in the Gulf of Tonkin, at least invented an excuse before attacking.
• Leadership in both Tel Aviv and the Oval Office is called erratic, making their next moves impossible to predict.
• Attacking during a negotiation is framed as dishonorable, poisoning trust in any future US diplomacy.

Outlook: With unpredictable leaders in Washington and Israel, further escalation with Iran is a real risk and no one can rule out more surprises.