Signs are building that a short-term US-Iran deal could come together this week at the UN General Assembly, which is bullish for stocks and bearish for oil prices.

• The White House is proposing a $5 billion fund to rebuild Gulf energy sites damaged in the war, with Gulf states asked to double it to $10 billion.
• Iran's president and foreign minister have arrived in New York, and Qatar, Oman and Pakistan are all working to broker at least a short-term deal through year-end.
• Trump is squeezing Iran hard first: Treasury Secretary Bessent plans to cut off all Iranian airline traffic worldwide on Wednesday, and the US denied visas to part of Iran's delegation.
• Iran's economy is buckling, with inflation near 70%, factory supplies collapsing, and thousands of trucks stuck at its land borders.
• Markets are already pricing in a deal: oil is falling back toward $100, the Nasdaq is near record highs, and the bond market shows inflation fears easing since the Fed's rate hike.

Outlook: The next seven days of UN sideline talks are critical — a deal would likely spark a further stock rally and push oil lower, while failure risks renewed strikes and another spike in fear.