Trump's latest speech held up better than usual on the facts, and hints of a possible deal pushed oil higher — a mixed signal for markets.

• Most of the claims checked out this time, apart from talk of munitions shortages, which looks like posturing to project strength.
• The harshest lines — calling Cuba a failed state, painting Mexico as overrun by crime — were exaggeration, not fact.
• Hints that a deal could come after the midterms sent Brent crude above $100.
• Stocks barely moved: the Nasdaq peaked as the speech started and has drifted sideways since.

Outlook: Expect a short-term deal to be dangled as a bargaining chip while the real negotiation drags past the midterms.