Republicans are heading into the midterms in serious trouble, with high gas prices and the Iran war turning safe red states into real races — bad for the GOP, good for Democrats.

• Trump's approval has dropped below 30% for the first time, and voters blame him for the economy and the war.
• Republican candidates in Michigan and Iowa are now calling for the Iran war to end and for gas taxes to be suspended.
• Iowa farmers got hit three times over — China tariffs, a fertilizer crisis, and now expensive diesel — and the Democrat leads there by eight points.
• Texas is unexpectedly close in the Senate race because its oil and data-center economy is still booming, but scandal-plagued Ken Paxton is barely tied.
• Republicans still hold a huge money edge, planning to outspend Democrats by more than $200 million on ads before election day.

Outlook: If the swing away from Trump holds, Democrats take the House easily and could pick off Senate seats in states nobody thought were competitive — though Republican cash and a late scare tactic could still narrow it.