Trump's carrot-and-stick talk on Iran points toward a deal rather than a strike, which would be good news for oil markets and anyone worried about a wider war.

• The pitch is simple: let Iran rebuild and prosper, or face being wiped out.
• A proposed pact would seed $5 billion of Middle East infrastructure money from the US, matched by other countries.
• More investment inside Iran could be unlocked once a deal is signed.
• This softer "look how great it could be" language has come right before past deals, ceasefires, and backdowns.

Outlook: A negotiated agreement looks more likely than military action in the near term.