Oil kept falling for a fifth day while Trump's UN speech landed badly across the political spectrum, leaving markets guessing and the White House politically exposed.

• Oil dropped again and slipped back under $100, mostly because more product is getting through despite the Iran conflict.
• Wall Street has openly given up predicting where oil goes next, and JP Morgan pulled its baseline oil forecast because it can't model the situation.
• Trump threatened to "annihilate" Iran at the UN while promising a deal after the election, which read as desperation rather than strength.
• Iran says nothing has changed in its position, and its state media now wants a 20% fee on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
• Polling is brutal: two-thirds of Americans say the US isn't winning, and Republican approval of Trump's handling has fallen sharply.

Outlook: With no endgame laid out and Iran holding firm, oil is likely to keep swinging on headlines rather than fundamentals, and pressure to end the blockade before the midterms will only grow.