What Prediction Markets Say About Congress

Sep 22, 2026

Betting markets now give Democrats a strong edge to take the House, which is bad news for Republicans heading into the midterms.

  • Traders put the odds of Democrats winning the House at over 90%, with tens of millions of dollars riding on it.
  • Republicans are given less than a 10% chance in the same market.
  • The Senate is much closer, with Democrats only slightly ahead at about 60-40.
  • Winning the House alone would not give Democrats full control, so the Senate race is the one that decides how much changes.

Outlook: Expect the House odds to stay lopsided while the Senate stays a real contest, and watch the money flowing into these markets as the vote gets closer.

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