Xi Jinping heads to the White House this week for a summit with Trump, and US analysts expect Xi to raise Taiwan himself while Trump focuses on Iran, trade, and AI — a cautiously positive sign for stability if Trump holds the line on the Taiwan Strait.

• Xi lands near Washington on the 23rd, meets Trump at the White House on the 24th, and gets a state dinner — his first US state visit in 11 years and the pair's second meeting this year after May's Beijing summit.
• Iran sits near the top of Trump's list: he wants China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to push Tehran back to the negotiating table and cut its oil purchases as the war that began in February drags on.
• Trade, tariffs, and rare-earth magnets are also on the table, with both sides preparing a list of up to $30 billion in non-sensitive goods for tariff cuts and a push to set up an AI dialogue to lower the risks of the technology race.
• Xi is expected to bring up Taiwan, while Trump is unlikely to; former White House China director Dennis Wilder says Trump finds the current situation "very acceptable" and sees no reason to change it.
• Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund says Trump should warn Xi against using force on Taiwan and remind him that US law requires selling Taiwan defensive weapons; Japan, with its own tensions with China, may be even more nervous than Taiwan about being badmouthed at the summit.

Outlook: Success will be judged on progress in AI talks and rare-earth exports, with two more possible Trump–Xi meetings this year at APEC in Shenzhen and the G20 in Miami — an unprecedented pace of leader visits.