Markets are selling off as traders lose patience waiting for a US–Iran deal, which is bad for stocks and bonds right now but could flip fast if an agreement lands.

• A full US proposal is now in Iran's hands, but no deal yet, so stocks fell, oil jumped toward Brent 102, and government bond yields spiked near a 20-year high.
• A commercial ship was hit in the Gulf and one crew member was killed, making the deal look shaky — though attacks often spike right before a deal is signed.
• Iran is hard to negotiate with because power is split among many armed factions that can each launch attacks on their own, so signals contradict each other.
• Trump needs a win before the midterms or Republicans likely lose the House, which is pushing both sides toward concessions.
• Rubio hinted a limited Russia–Ukraine ceasefire on grain and energy shipments could come at the same time, which would help bring energy prices down.

Outlook: A deal could be announced this weekend or early next week, with the worst of the selling likely just before it — then lower oil and a relief rally in stocks.