Taiwan's security officials say China is using the Trump-Xi summit in Washington to press the US into pulling back from the first island chain, which would be bad news for Taiwan and its neighbors.

• Beijing is betting that the Middle East, the Ukraine war, and US midterm elections have left Washington stretched thin, creating an opening to push for concessions.
• The playbook is pressure first, then trade: more coast guard ships, warships, and survey vessels around Taiwan, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea, then offers to dial it back in exchange for something.
• Sweeteners on the table include soybean and gas purchases and help calming the Middle East, packaged as gifts in return for softer US positions on Taiwan.
• Chinese scholars are placing articles in US publications arguing the first island chain is a burden for America, alongside online clips edited to suggest Washington is ready to abandon Taiwan.
• US, Japanese, and South Korean foreign ministers met in New York and restated support for peace in the Taiwan Strait, a sign allies are building their own framework rather than waiting on the summit.

Outlook: Watch whether Washington delays arms sales to Taiwan, eases tech export controls, or softens its pushback on Chinese overcapacity — those would be the signs Beijing's approach is working.