Xi Jinping's first White House visit in 11 years is starting with a lavish welcome but almost no sign of real deals, which is bad for Trump and good for China's bargaining position.

• Trump plans to meet Xi at the airport with a military flyover, a state dinner, and Melania appearing at several events.
• The US dinner list is packed with tech and finance chiefs — Musk, Bezos, Cook, Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman — but China is not expected to bring any corporate delegation, a sign nobody expects business results.
• China arrives with energy leverage as the Iran war rattles oil markets; Bank of America says oil could hit $150 a barrel if supplies keep tightening, and has raised its year-end forecast.
• Republicans are publicly breaking with Trump ahead of the midterms — the Senate Armed Services chair criticized the red-carpet treatment for Xi, and a GOP senator called for an investigation into Donald Trump Jr. over gifts tied to a Putin-linked oligarch.
• A veterans benefits bill stalled over cost, while the administration cut hundreds of thousands of Obamacare enrollments citing fraud.

Outlook: Expect symbolism over substance from the summit, with oil prices and midterm politics putting more pressure on Trump than on Xi.