Bitcoin's pullback looks like a normal pause rather than a top, which is good news for buyers as long as the low $80,000s hold.

• Bitcoin bounced off a key moving average and is holding above roughly $84,100, keeping the uptrend intact.
• Past setups like this one have delivered gains within days to weeks, with the strongest returns showing up a month or two out.
• Bitcoin also reclaimed a major long-term average on higher timeframes, which historically has led to much bigger moves up.
• Betting markets are far less optimistic, putting six-figure Bitcoin by New Year's at only about a one-in-five chance.
• A violent 10-20% correction is still expected later this year, likely in October or near year-end.

Outlook: Sideways-to-higher over the next few days, with a push back toward the recent highs in early October, then a sharp correction before the next leg up.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish while above the low $80,000s.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Buying spot here; a dip to 81K-81.5K should at least bounce.
• **Support:** $84,100 (must hold for sideways-and-up), $82,800 (prior May swing high retest), $80,000 (trending higher low), $82,300 on CME futures.
• **Resistance:** ~$90,000 (top of the CME band and the $86,500 reclaim area above current price).
• **Targets:** ~$86,000 within 5 days, $87,500-$88,000 by early October, above $90,000 within 30 days, six figures by mid-October on the more aggressive setup, ~$110,000 on the 40-day stats.
• **Invalidation:** A close back below $82,800 (today's low) breaks the reclaim; losing $80,000 breaks the short-term structure.