Bitcoin has climbed back above what it costs to mine it, and JP Morgan now sees the setup turning bullish — good news for crypto holders, though a run to $150,000 still looks like a long shot.

• Bitcoin spent 280 days trading below the cost of mining it, the longest stretch since the 2018 crash, and has finally broken back above it.
• That long squeeze pushed weak miners out of the business, many into AI computing, which means fewer coins being dumped on the market just to pay the bills.
• Bitcoin is also testing a five-year resistance line from above; if it holds near $82,000 through earnings season, that opens the door back to $102,000.
• A move to $150,000 needs almost everything to go right — an Iran deal, falling bond yields, and no cracks in the AI boom.
• Betting markets put the odds of $150,000 before 2027 at 3%; a fairer read is closer to 10%.

Outlook: An Iran deal is the key test — without one, the path back above $100,000 likely stalls, and the Anthropic and Nscale IPOs could either steady the AI trade or shake it.