The Iran standoff is getting worse, not better, and that's bad news for oil prices, mortgage rates, and stocks.

• New US sanctions target every airport, airline, and fuel supplier that services Iranian planes, cutting violators off from the US financial system.
• Iran is threatening to hit back at neighboring airports and warning the war could spread as far as the Indian Ocean.
• The UAE, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq, and Oman are going along with the sanctions; Turkey and China are not.
• Oil has pushed past $100 and Goldman says $120 is possible if tanker attacks keep up, while mortgage rates near 7% and a Fed official floats another rate hike.
• Scott Bessent insists Iran will honor a deal this time, and pressure on Trump to settle — high oil, high bond yields, an election coming — is near its peak.

Outlook: A deal still looks likely before long, but until it lands oil, bond yields, and mortgage rates keep grinding higher.