Inflation is picking up again and traders are betting the Fed will have to raise interest rates five times, which is bad news for borrowers and for stocks.

• Private surveys show business costs jumped in September, with inflation at its highest since late 2022.
• Companies still have the power to raise prices, and Fed official Tom Barkin admitted he doesn't see that power fading.
• Traders now have almost five rate hikes fully priced in between now and September of next year.
• Wages are climbing, gas and shipping costs are up, and supply shortages are back.
• Hiring is the strongest since early 2021, which gives the Fed more room to keep tightening.

Outlook: If prices keep rising at this pace, the Fed will be pushed into more hikes, and borrowing costs go higher from here.