America's post-Cold War plan to lock in permanent dominance through NATO expansion ended up provoking the war it was meant to prevent — bad for Europe, bad for any near-term peace deal.

• A 1992 US defense blueprint set the goal: exploit the moment after the Soviet collapse to stay the world's only superpower forever.
• Blocking the return of Russia and China as rivals was central, and pushing NATO east was one of the main tools.
• Eastern European countries wanted US protection against Russia, but taking them in extended American military guarantees far beyond what the country itself needed.
• Moving the alliance up to Russia's border provoked the reaction in Ukraine — the same way Washington would never accept a rival bloc in Mexico or Canada.
• Permanent US presence there clashes with the assurances given to Russia when the post-Cold War arrangements were made, which makes a peace deal harder to reach.

Outlook: As long as the alliance keeps pushing east and stays permanently, expect talks over Ukraine to stay stuck.