Republican Senate and House prospects are sliding fast, which is bad news for the party in power and a big opening for Democrats.

• Latino voters who swung to Trump in 2024 are moving back toward Democrats, with some Texas and Florida districts shifting by 20 to 30 points.
• Tariffs and high gas and diesel prices are hurting farm states, putting Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and even Alaska in play.
• Cuban and Venezuelan voters in Florida feel betrayed as ICE raids hit their own communities and Venezuela policy fails to deliver real change.
• Republicans drew safe-looking districts assuming their Latino gains would last, and that bet is now backfiring.
• Nervous Republicans are suddenly breaking with Trump on ICE raids and the Iran war, a sign they believe the bad polls.

Outlook: Democrats now look favored to take the Senate, though strong incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine could still hold on.