Robert Pape on the risk of post-election violence
The real danger this November is not voter intimidation but what happens after the counting starts — a warning that this could be the most dangerous election in living memory.
- The danger zone runs from the close of polls through certification and the seating of the new Congress in early January 2027.
- If Republicans lose badly, Trump faces not just political pressure but possible removal, with some in the GOP already drifting away.
- The Iran war raises the stakes: a president in domestic trouble can escalate abroad, which also builds a national-security case for calling out the military at home.
- National Guard deployments and talk of martial law from Trump's outside advisers point to a fight over the count, not over voting day itself.
- The guardrails that surrounded Trump in 2020 — cabinet officials willing to say no — are mostly gone this time.
Outlook: Expect the pressure to build after election night rather than before it, with the flashpoint arriving around certification in January.