Robert Pape on the risk of post-election violence

Sep 24, 2026

The real danger this November is not voter intimidation but what happens after the counting starts — a warning that this could be the most dangerous election in living memory.

  • The danger zone runs from the close of polls through certification and the seating of the new Congress in early January 2027.
  • If Republicans lose badly, Trump faces not just political pressure but possible removal, with some in the GOP already drifting away.
  • The Iran war raises the stakes: a president in domestic trouble can escalate abroad, which also builds a national-security case for calling out the military at home.
  • National Guard deployments and talk of martial law from Trump's outside advisers point to a fight over the count, not over voting day itself.
  • The guardrails that surrounded Trump in 2020 — cabinet officials willing to say no — are mostly gone this time.

Outlook: Expect the pressure to build after election night rather than before it, with the flashpoint arriving around certification in January.

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