Talks between the US and Iran on a step-by-step deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be good news for oil markets, stocks, and anyone paying high gas prices.

• Negotiators in New York are working on a staged deal: Iran reopens the strait, the US lifts the blockade choking Iran's economy.
• Oil prices eased and government bond yields pulled back as the news broke, taking pressure off stocks.
• Both sides have reasons to move fast — Trump wants cheaper gas before the midterms, and Iran badly needs economic relief.
• The sticking point is leverage: neither side wants to give up its pressure first, and Gulf states reject any Iranian control over the strait.
• Iran has softened on collecting transit fees, signaling it mainly wants to keep administrative control — an early concession.

Outlook: Nothing is signed yet, but a deal before the midterms looks increasingly likely, which would send oil lower and give stocks room to run into year-end.