A tense mix of bad economic news and cautious diplomacy, with rising borrowing costs the biggest threat to ordinary people.

• Xi Jinping arrived in the US for talks with Trump, but expectations are low and no big Chinese business delegation came along.
• Government bond yields pushed past 5%, which makes loans, credit cards, and mortgages more expensive for everyone.
• US debt is around $40 trillion and people owe $19 trillion, so higher rates hit an economy that runs on borrowing.
• Trump's approval has fallen to a record low, with only a small slice of people approving of how he handles the cost of living.
• Most Middle East energy infrastructure is still intact; if that changes, a global recession becomes the realistic outcome.

Outlook: A truce is supposed to hold into January, and with midterms weeks away the China talks look more like handshakes than a real trade breakthrough.