Ukraine's leadership is trapped between a possible deal with Russia and hardline nationalists who have threatened to kill anyone who signs one — bad news for any near-term end to the war.

• Far-right figures tied to Right Sector have repeatedly threatened Zelensky's life if he makes peace with Putin, just as they threatened Poroshenko before him.
• Zelensky won in 2019 on a peace platform, then backed off after nationalist "no to capitulation" rallies killed a German-brokered plan to implement the Minsk deal.
• The nationalist logic is simple: a deal means everyone who died in the war died for nothing, so it counts as betrayal.
• Russia reportedly floated freezing the lines in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson if Ukraine gives up the last slice of Donetsk — Kyiv has refused.
• Putin now talks about taking "Novorossiya," which can be read as the whole southern coast, leaving Ukraine landlocked.

Outlook: With Kyiv unable to accept the offer and Moscow's terms hardening, the fighting looks set to grind on rather than end at the negotiating table.