A revisionist take on the 2022 invasion of Ukraine argues there was no emergency justifying the timing — an argument that cuts against Moscow's humanitarian framing while also blaming the West for baiting it.

• The claim: nothing changed overnight in Donbas that forced Russia to move when it did, so the "protect civilians" case is thin.
• Shelling in eastern Ukraine did pick up beforehand, but Russia used it as an opening rather than being compelled by it.
• Macron reportedly warned Putin directly not to take the bait, telling him the provocations were designed to draw a reaction.
• Putin himself said publicly he suspected a trap, then argued that acting later would only be harder.
• The comparison drawn is Libya in 2011, where an imminent-massacre warning was used to justify intervention.

Outlook: Expect this line of argument — that the invasion was a choice, not a necessity, and one the West helped provoke — to keep surfacing in debates over how any Ukraine settlement gets framed.