Taiwan's defense readiness depends less on buying American weapons than on whether the two militaries can actually fight together, a gap that remains wide after decades of limited cooperation.

• Retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery says arms sales matter, but joint exercises, shared war plans, and US training teams stationed in Taiwan matter more.
• The US has avoided meaningful military cooperation with Taiwan for 45 years, leaving the two forces unable to coordinate in a real fight.
• The often-cited 2027 window for a Chinese move on Taiwan no longer holds — 2029 or 2030 is more likely, if it comes at all.
• The bigger near-term threat is economic pressure combined with cyberattacks, disinformation, and legal warfare aimed at breaking Taiwan's social cohesion.
• Taiwan's communications, energy, and financial systems need backup capacity to withstand that pressure.

Outlook: Expect continued pressure for higher-level US-Taiwan military contacts, including calls for President Lai Ching-te to visit Washington, while China's campaign shifts toward non-military coercion.