Taiwan's ruling DPP is heading into the November 28 local elections aiming to beat its 2022 low, a test that will shape the island's politics for years.

• The DPP wants to hold Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi County and Penghu, then flip Changhua, Chiayi City, Yilan, Hsinchu County and Keelung from the opposition KMT.
• New Taipei is the biggest prize and the race there is a dead heat, with DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui and the KMT's Li Si-chuan inside the margin of error.
• The vote doubles as a midterm grade for President Lai Ching-te, who also chairs the party, and the DPP is leaning on a package of childcare and youth benefits plus the pull of Lai, Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim and former president Tsai Ing-wen.
• Penghu looks shaky after the sitting governor was hospitalized and his wife stepped in as a last-minute candidate trailing in polls.
• Taipei and Taitung are the surprises: DPP Taipei candidate Puma Shen still trails Mayor Chiang Wan-an but is drawing young and middle-class voters, while a corruption case around the KMT's Taitung candidate has lifted the DPP there.

Outlook: With two months left, New Taipei will decide whether the DPP can call the election a win, and a flip there would reset Taiwan's political map ahead of 2028.