Iran has put a broad peace deal on the table, but the odds of it holding look slim — bad news for oil markets, the global economy, and anyone hoping the conflict ends soon.

• Iran says it is ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and open nuclear talks in exchange for unfrozen assets, sanctions relief on its oil, and an end to the US naval blockade.
• The sticking point: Iran wants the fighting to stop in Gaza and Lebanon too, and Israel shows no sign of pulling back from either.
• Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are running the talks, and Kushner is seen as carrying Israel's position rather than America's.
• Even if a deal is announced, Israeli strikes could unravel it within days — a pattern already seen in earlier rounds.
• The war has hit America hard: high oil prices, damaged bases, and a wrecked political position heading into the midterms.

Outlook: There is a roughly two-week window before the US midterms and Israeli elections make any deal impossible, and the most likely outcome is no lasting agreement and continued economic pain.