Trump turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and that could mean a rough Monday for oil, bonds, and stocks — though a deal still looks close.

• Iran offered to reopen the strait and stop laying naval mines if the U.S. returned frozen money, lifted the naval blockade, and eased oil sanctions.
• The rejection landed late Friday, after markets closed — a deliberate move to create weekend pressure before in-person talks with Iran's foreign minister on Monday.
• The stated reason for the "no" is doubt that Iran would follow through, which suggests real negotiations are still running and only a few points remain.
• Reporting says Trump wants to save weapons for other conflicts and is open to resuming strikes only after the election — a sign the tough talk is a bargaining tactic.
• The bigger worry is bond yields: every time they have climbed this fast in the past, something in the financial system has broken.

Outlook: Expect a jumpy Monday in oil and stocks, with a real chance of a deal announcement around the U.N. General Assembly's final day or shortly after.