Nigeria quietly struck a truce with Boko Haram that has cut violence for now, but neither side looks serious about peace — a mixed result for northern civilians.

• The government secretly agreed to a three-month ceasefire in June after paying a ransom to free captives taken in a raid on an army base.
• Abuja has never confirmed the deal and Boko Haram publicly denies it, but the government's silence is read as a quiet admission.
• Attacks and deaths have fallen across most of the northeast, though part of that drop came earlier from joint Nigerian-US strikes that killed senior fighters.
• Boko Haram gets money and time to rebuild; President Tinubu gets calmer headlines before January's election, where security is voters' top worry.
• Violence has shifted across the border into Cameroon, which now faces more raids while Nigeria gets breathing room.

Outlook: A lasting peace deal looks unlikely — Tinubu is expanding the army by tens of thousands of troops, and Abuja's real hope is to push Boko Haram into war with its rival ISWAP.