Government borrowing costs are jumping worldwide while a US-Iran confrontation builds, and that combination is bad for borrowers, homebuyers, and the party in power.

• Trump and Xi agreed to pause trade fights into 2027, which frees Washington to move combat aircraft into the Middle East and brush off Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Government bond yields have climbed to the highest levels in two decades as investors demand more to fund war, shipping, and insurance costs, and 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%.
• Housing has frozen: first-time buyers are priced out, investors are buying the starter homes, and warning signs are flashing in commercial real estate.
• Gas and diesel prices, stubborn inflation, and an unwanted war are sinking approval ratings heading into the November midterms.
• Central banks in China and emerging markets keep buying physical gold and shifting it out of Western vaults as more trade gets settled outside the dollar.

Outlook: The next five weeks decide whether the White House can produce an economic win, or whether high rates, expensive energy, and a two-front military standoff break its political coalition.