US Pacific commander invokes Sun Tzu on deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

Sep 27, 2026

America's top commander in the Pacific says the goal is to make an attack on Taiwan look so costly that China never tries — a message aimed at Beijing, and a warning sign for anyone who thought the risk of war had faded.

  • Admiral Samuel Paparo describes the US plan as "deterrence by denial": not toppling China's Communist Party, just convincing it that any move on Taiwan would be blocked.
  • His plan is to flood the Taiwan Strait with cheap mass-produced attack drones alongside traditional missiles, turning the water into what he calls a "hellscape" for an invading force.
  • The idea comes straight from Ukraine, where drone-patrolled no-man's-land has stopped Russian troops from advancing.
  • China's navy has grown twelvefold in 25 years, and its missile, space, and nuclear programs are expanding fast.
  • A 2023 war game found the US and its allies would usually beat an invasion but lose two aircraft carriers, dozens of ships, and hundreds of planes — and that was before the Iran war drained American missile stockpiles.

Outlook: Paparo says he is confident the US would win and is working to cut the cost toward zero, but the decision to intervene at all would rest with the president.

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