The Iran conflict is escalating again, and the biggest loser may be American drivers and Republicans heading into the midterms.

• Iran launched its largest missile barrage in months at US military positions in Jordan, hitting an airbase.
• The US sank three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, which only tightens oil supply and pushes gas prices higher.
• Iran is openly threatening oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf, including facilities tied to American companies.
• With the Strait of Hormuz already disrupted, high gas prices are hurting the global economy and Trump's party politically.
• Iran now appears to want the war to continue, shifting from tit-for-tat responses to offensive strikes timed to do maximum political damage.

Outlook: Expect more strikes on Gulf energy targets and rising odds that a US ship gets hit, which would push oil and gas prices higher still.