A new poll shows a Republican Senate seat in deep-red South Carolina nearly tied, while Trump's use of government money for a campaign-style ad draws pushback from his own party.

• Trafalgar has Lindsey Graham's sister Darlene Graham leading Democrat Annie Andrews by a single point in South Carolina, with neither near 50%.
• A Trump ad promising to drive warmongers out of Washington ran across NFL games paid for by the US government, not a campaign — and it landed while the Iran war is still going.
• Republican Senator John Kennedy said publicly that no official should use public money to promote themselves, and guessed there is probably already a rule against it.
• Republicans who backed the Iran war, including Mike Rogers and Ashley Hinson in Iowa, are suddenly calling for it to end as polls turn against them.
• The polls could still be wrong in the usual direction: non-college white voters who rarely answer surveys broke hard for Republicans in 2016 and 2020, and Trump is not on the ballot this time.

Outlook: Democrats look set for a strong night in the House, but the long-shot Senate bets in South Carolina, Iowa and Mississippi may look foolish the morning after.