A claim that the recent hits to global energy infrastructure are deliberate American policy, framed as bad news for China, Europe, and Saudi Arabia, and good for US oil sellers.

• The US is the world's biggest oil and gas producer, so damage to rival supply pushes buyers toward American energy priced in dollars.
• China is the main target: its factories run on Gulf oil, and shipping chokepoints like Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closing hits China hardest.
• Asia and Europe get squeezed too, forced to buy from the US instead of Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia is under pressure to sign the Abraham Accords in exchange for US protection, weapons, and a nuclear program, but is holding out for a path to a Palestinian state.
• The payoff is control of energy and shipping lanes closest to home.

Outlook: Expect continued pressure on Gulf shipping routes and on Saudi Arabia until it moves on the Abraham Accords.