Home heating costs are jumping this winter, and it hits older homes and low-income families in the Northeast hardest.

• Heating oil bills are set to rise 31% this winter, with Northeast homes paying around $2,300 from mid-November to mid-March.
• Wholesale prices have already doubled from last February, so the real hit could be closer to 2x.
• The cause is the Iran war disrupting shipping plus a shortage of refineries — the US has closed plants and built no new capacity.
• Nearly 5 million homes burn heating oil, most of them in the Northeast, and one in six American households is already behind on energy bills.
• Homes on natural gas get a break — those bills are expected to fall about 14%.

Outlook: Prices are unlikely to ease before mid-winter, since it takes months to work through the system and refining capacity cannot be added quickly.