Iran is bending under the US naval blockade, which is good news for markets betting on a nuclear deal and lower interest rates.

• Iran's foreign minister, a harder-line figure than its president, has privately offered to restore nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief.
• Oil shipments out of the Middle East are nearly back to pre-war levels, but Iran itself is exporting less than a tenth of what it shipped before the conflict.
• The US is guaranteeing the safety and insurance of tankers in the Gulf, so Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz is slipping.
• Trump is sending another 9,000-10,000 troops and a third carrier group to the region — pressure tactics, not a sign the talks are failing.
• Government bond yields keep swinging up and down each day because there is still no deal; stocks already hit new highs without one.

Outlook: A nuclear deal looks increasingly likely, which would push bond yields down and stocks higher still.