Former National Security Bureau Director-General Lee Hsiang-chou said bluntly that Taiwan cannot outmatch China in an arms race, but still has ways to defend itself — a pragmatic rather than pessimistic assessment of Taiwan's defence prospects.

• Taiwan will never be able to keep pace in a cross-strait arms race, but falling short does not mean it cannot hold the line.
• Taiwan must do three things: make itself strong enough that an adversary dares not act, avoid placing its security in the hands of others, and ensure the public is willing to defend this land.
• The balance of military power among the United States, China and Taiwan has shifted markedly — the United States turned its focus to counter-terrorism after 9/11, while China has expanded its forces at full tilt since the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, and the People's Liberation Army now holds a strategic advantage in the Western Pacific.
• Beijing continues to assert that sovereignty over Taiwan is "the core of its core interests," making accurate judgement of the situation and the avoidance of war the most critical task for Taiwan's leaders.
• Taiwan can pursue strategic space by peaceful means, drawing on its geographic position, humanitarian relief work and semiconductor industry to secure a position of strategic leadership among neighbouring countries, leaving the other side of the strait no opening to act.

Outlook: The military gap across the Taiwan Strait will only widen in the near term, and Taiwan's focus will shift towards asymmetric defence, semiconductor leverage and public cohesion, rather than a head-on arms race.