Trump has turned down Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk of renewed fighting — bad news for oil markets and anyone hoping for a quick de-escalation.

• Iran offered to open the Strait of Hormuz within a week, and Trump said no.
• The rejection landed late Friday, after the offer sat for days, leaving markets to stew over the weekend.
• The timing looks deliberate: create pressure before U.S. officials sit down with Iran's foreign minister Zarif on Monday.
• The implicit threat is that bombing resumes if Iran does not give more ground.

Outlook: Monday's talks will show whether the hardball worked or whether the shooting starts again.